ADP · News · 20261103N

AI Labor Market Disruption

AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC · 2026-11-03 · Importance 32 · Surprise 48

Stanford economists analyzed ADP payroll data and found that, as of June, employment among U.S. workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations was about 19% below the level implied by employment growth among young workers in less-exposed jobs. The gap was 15% a year earlier, indicating a widening relative employment shortfall for young workers in AI-exposed occupations. The report also cited Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showing that AI was named in 120,136 U.S. job cuts through September, though that figure describes announced cuts rather than overall employment effects.

Key facts

• Stanford economists Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen used ADP payroll data to find that, as of June, employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed occupations was about 19% below the level it would have reached if it had kept pace with young workers in less-exposed jobs. source