AES · 10-Q · 2026Q2 · Full report

Weather Impact on Demand

AES CORP · 2026-08-04 · Importance 17 · Surprise 24 · In source text

NOAA declared an El Niño advisory on July 9, 2026, and agencies forecast strong-to-record-setting El Niño conditions from late 2026 into 2027. Dry hydrological conditions in Panama, Colombia, and Chile could reduce hydroelectric generation, increase purchased power requirements, and raise electricity prices, although AES’s thermal, wind, solar, and battery assets provide mitigation. In the U.S. Midwest, above-normal winter temperatures during the 2026–2027 heating season could significantly reduce retail electric sales in the fourth quarter of 2026 and first quarter of 2027. Management states that weather-related impacts may be material to results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows.

Key facts

• On July 9, 2026, NOAA declared an El Niño advisory and forecast consensus expects strong-to-record-setting El Niño conditions in late 2026 into 2027 source
• The increase in Renewables SBU revenue for three and six months ended June 30, 2026 included impacts driven by El Niño, cited as $67 million for the quarter and $48 million for the six months in Colombia. source

Impact estimates