CF · 8-K · 20260805PR000017

Nitrogen Supply-Demand Outlook

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · 2026-08-05 · Importance 23 · Surprise 24

Management expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained and demand to remain constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027, supported by global production disruptions and supportive grain stocks-to-use ratios. Lower nitrogen prices entering the second half of 2026 are expected to support demand recovery, with India, Southeast Asia and other deferred-purchase regions projected to import urea at or above second-half 2025 levels. Brazilian urea imports are projected to be robust in the second half of 2026 after weaker first-half demand, while North American nitrogen demand for the 2027 growing season is expected to be firm based on strong July ammonia and UAN fill-program uptake and below-average channel inventories. Capacity additions under construction are not projected to keep pace with demand growth over the next four years.

Key facts

• Management believes nitrogen demand in North America for the 2027 growing season will be firm based on strong uptake of the Company’s ammonia and UAN fill programs in July 2026 and projected North American channel inventory lower than average source
• The Company projects that lower nitrogen prices entering the second half of 2026 are expected to support strong demand into 2027 and that India, Southeast Asia and other regions are expected to import urea at or above second-half 2025 levels source
• The Company expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten over the long term as capacity additions under construction are not projected to keep pace with demand growth over the next four years source
• Management expects nitrogen supply to remain constrained and demand to remain constructive through the end of 2026 and into 2027 based on global production disruptions in 2026 and supportive grain stocks-to-use ratios source
• Global nitrogen prices increased from mid-February 2026 into the second quarter of 2026 and by the end of the second quarter seasonal declines and expected returning Middle East supply pushed nitrogen prices back to pre-conflict levels source