CF · 10-Q · 2026Q2 · Full report

Geopolitical Supply Disruptions

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · 2026-08-06 · Importance 44 · Surprise 60

The conflict with Iran disrupted fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 after safety concerns and the loss of war-risk insurance halted vessel traffic. The Middle East represents approximately 25%–30% of globally traded ammonia and 35%–40% of globally traded urea, while Qatar’s LNG exports represent approximately 18% of global LNG trade. The resulting production curtailments and LNG disruptions pushed nitrogen fertilizer prices significantly higher in March 2026, although prices declined late in the second quarter as agricultural demand weakened and ceasefire prospects improved. Management expects the conflict, shipping constraints, infrastructure damage and repair timelines to keep nitrogen prices and demand volatile in the near term.

Key facts

• Pursuant to a long-term offtake agreement, a joint venture between a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corporation and Enbridge Inc. would transport the CO2 and permanently sequester it in a Class VI well at its Pelican Sequestration Hub in Louisiana, which is currently under development. source
• In March 2026, Qatar’s LNG exports, which account for approximately 18% of global LNG trade, had export facilities taken offline. source
• Nitrogen production in the Middle East accounts for approximately 25-30% of globally traded ammonia and approximately 35-40% of globally traded urea annually. source