COP · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report

Free Cash Flow Outlook

CONOCOPHILLIPS · 2026-11-05 · Importance 85 · Surprise 64 · No source text

Third-quarter cash from operations was $7.2 billion; after $3.1 billion of capital expenditures, ConocoPhillips generated approximately $4 billion of free cash flow. Management reiterated a target of $7 billion of free cash flow by 2029 at $70-per-barrel WTI, approximately double 2025 free cash flow. It expects CFO and free cash flow growth to continue beyond 2029 at a structurally lower reinvestment rate, with reinvestment below 50% in the 2030s. The pre-dividend free-cash-flow breakeven is currently in the mid-$40s WTI and is expected to improve to the low $30s approaching 2029 and beyond.

Key facts

• CONOCOPHILLIPS expected its free cash flow to reach $7 billion by 2029, approximately double its 2025 free cash flow at $70-per-barrel WTI.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS’ pre-dividend free cash flow breakeven was in the mid-$40s WTI and was expected to improve to the low $30s as the company approached 2029 and beyond.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS generated approximately $4 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter of 2026 after $3.1 billion of capital expenditures.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS’ third-quarter 2026 cash from operations was $7.2 billion.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS said its portfolio supports continued CFO and free cash flow growth well beyond 2029 at a structurally lower reinvestment rate.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS said its free cash flow growth would continue through the next decade at a structurally lower reinvestment rate than today.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS expected its reinvestment rate to be well below 50% in the 2030s.
• CONOCOPHILLIPS’ pre-production-CapEx reinvestment rate at a $70 price deck over the prior couple of years would have been close to 60%.

Impact estimates