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Interest Rate Environment

CITIGROUP INC · 2026-10-14 · Importance 23 · Surprise 24 · In source text

Citigroup shifted its Federal Reserve forecast and now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike in December 2026. The change followed September U.S. consumer inflation data that exceeded expectations because of higher gasoline costs and broader price pressures. Citi expects rates to remain unchanged after the December hike and does not anticipate a cut before June 2027, while higher rates are also contributing to higher deposit costs and declining net interest margins.

Key facts

Impact estimates

metricdirectionstageexpectedbasis
net_incomepositivecontingent—Citigroup does not foresee rate cuts before June 2027 and expects the Fed to hold policy rates steady after the December hike.