C · News · 20261014N
Interest Rate Environment
CITIGROUP INC · 2026-10-14 · Importance 23 · Surprise 24 · In source text
Citigroup shifted its Federal Reserve forecast and now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike in December 2026. The change followed September U.S. consumer inflation data that exceeded expectations because of higher gasoline costs and broader price pressures. Citi expects rates to remain unchanged after the December hike and does not anticipate a cut before June 2027, while higher rates are also contributing to higher deposit costs and declining net interest margins.
Key facts
- Citigroup now expects the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December. source
- Citigroup does not foresee rate cuts before June 2027 and expects the Fed to hold policy rates steady after the December hike. source
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| net_income | positive | contingent | — | Citigroup does not foresee rate cuts before June 2027 and expects the Fed to hold policy rates steady after the December hike. |