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Interest Rate Outlook

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC · 2026-08-17 · Importance 17 · Surprise 24

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said market expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes are too aggressive. He viewed a September rate increase as highly improbable because retail sales and employment data have weakened and inflation has cooled. Goldman said traders’ expectations for the next quarter-point hike, shifted to January, could still unwind further.

Key facts

• Goldman Sachs believes a Federal Reserve rate increase in September is highly improbable due to recent softer retail sales, disappointing employment figures, and cooling inflation. source