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Middle East Conflict Impact

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC · 2026-09-30 · Importance 17 · Surprise 24

Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day during the week ended September 30, 2026. The level was in line with the 2025 average, despite continued shipping risks associated with the Middle East conflict. JPMorgan reported that Middle East crude flows reached 98% of pre-war levels, while refined-product flows were at 58%. The recovery suggests reduced near-term disruption risk for global oil markets, although product flows remain materially below pre-war levels.

Key facts

• Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf had recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the last week, in line with the 2025 average. source