GS · News · 20261020N

Interest Rate Outlook

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC · 2026-10-20 · Importance 32 · Surprise 48

Goldman Sachs warned that elevated U.S. mortgage rates will continue to constrain housing affordability through 2027. The firm expects the recent rebound in mortgage rates to increasingly weigh on housing activity, particularly existing-home sales and turnover. Analyst Ronnie Walker projected 2027 existing-home sales of 3.9 million, 26% below 2019 levels and slightly below the 4.0 million estimate for 2026; more than 95% of borrowers have mortgage rates below current market rates, including 65% at least two percentage points below market rates.

Key facts

• Goldman Sachs analyst Ronnie Walker estimates existing home sales of just 3.9 million in 2027, which is 26% below 2019 levels and slightly shy of his 4 million estimate for 2026. source
• Goldman Sachs warned that "more than 95% of mortgage borrowers have interest rates below current market rates, and 65% have rates 2 percentage points below market rates," which strongly disincentivizes them from moving. source