HSIC · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report

Aging Population Healthcare Demand

HENRY SCHEIN INC · 2026-11-03 · Importance 14 · Surprise 14 · In source text

Henry Schein cites aging populations, greater health care awareness, medical technology and testing, new pharmacological treatments, and expanded third-party insurance coverage as drivers of health care distribution demand, partly offset by unemployment-related effects on insurance coverage. U.S. Census Bureau projections indicate that the population aged 45 and older will grow approximately 10% from 2026 to 2036 and 17% from 2026 to 2046, compared with total U.S. population growth of approximately 4% and 6%, respectively. The U.S. population aged 85 and older is projected to rise from more than seven million in 2026 to more than 17 million by 2050, while the 65-to-84 age group is projected to grow approximately 12% over the same period. CMS data put 2024 U.S. health care spending at approximately $5.3 trillion, or 18.0% of GDP, and project approximately $9.0 trillion of spending, or 20.6% of GDP, by 2034.

Key facts

• The U.S. population aged 45 and older is expected to grow approximately 10% from 2026 to 2036 and approximately 17% from 2026 to 2046, compared with total U.S. population growth of approximately 4% and 6%, respectively. source
• In 2026, the United States had over seven million people aged 85 or older, projected to exceed 17 million by 2050; the population aged 65 to 84 is projected to increase approximately 12% during the same period. source
• U.S. national health care spending reached approximately $5.3 trillion in 2024, or 18.0% of GDP, and is projected to reach approximately $9.0 trillion by 2034, or 20.6% of projected GDP. source

Impact estimates