ICE · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report
Prediction Markets Regulation
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · 2026-10-29 · Importance 31 · Surprise 42 · In source text
The CFTC asserts that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state and tribal gaming laws for CFTC-registered prediction markets and that event contracts are swaps under its exclusive jurisdiction, while federal appeals courts disagree over sports-related contracts. New Jersey petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to review the issue. In September 2026, the CFTC submitted two rulemakings to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs that would define prediction-market event contracts as swaps while excluding casino-style gambling. ICE is monitoring the uncertain litigation and rulemaking outcomes for possible effects on derivatives trading volumes.
Key facts
- In September 2026, the CFTC submitted two rulemakings that would define prediction-market event contracts as swaps while excluding casino-style gambling from that definition; the uncertain outcome could affect ICE derivatives trading volumes. source
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| revenue | unclear | contingent | — | In September 2026, the CFTC submitted two rulemakings that would define prediction-market event contracts as swaps while excluding… |