JPM · News · 20261102N

Geopolitical Market Volatility Outlook

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO · 2026-11-02 · Importance 7 · Surprise 6

JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a client note on November 2, 2026, that geopolitical escalation after the U.S. midterm elections posed elevated risk. He said a restart of the U.S.-Iran conflict could weaken markets and cause a fresh spike in oil prices, but expected any conflict to be short-lived and viewed resulting market weakness as a buying opportunity. Matejka noted the MSCI World was up 12% year to date and the S&P 500 was 3% below its record high, while a defensive-sector rotation in October had erased higher-beta sectors’ gains from the prior three months.

Key facts

• JPMorgan believes the risk of renewed geopolitical escalation after the U.S. midterm elections is elevated; strategist Mislav Matejka said a restart of the U.S.-Iran conflict could trigger market weakness and a fresh spike in oil prices. source