MRK · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report

Guidance / Outlook

Merck & Co., Inc. · 2026-10-29 · Importance 80 · Surprise 68 · In source text

Merck raised the midpoint and narrowed its 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $66.8 billion–$67.3 billion, representing 3%–4% growth and including about a one-percentage-point foreign-exchange benefit. Full-year 2026 EPS guidance was $2.77–$2.82, including an approximately $0.15 foreign-exchange benefit. For 2027, management expected moderate revenue growth, with more than $2 billion of headwinds from generic competition and loss of exclusivity for BRIDION, the Januvia family, and Adempas; a roughly $250 million 2026 CDC vaccine-buy benefit was also expected to unwind in 2027. Management expected underlying operating expenses to increase at a mid- to high-single-digit rate in 2027, and described revenues as likely to experience a shallow dip around the KEYTRUDA loss-of-exclusivity period before returning to growth.

Key facts

• Merck expects 2026 revenue of $66.8 billion to $67.3 billion, representing growth of 3% to 4%, including an approximately 1-percentage-point positive foreign-exchange impact using mid-October rates.
• Merck expects more than $2 billion of 2027 headwinds from generic competition and loss of exclusivity affecting BRIDION, the Januvia family of products, and Adempas.
• Merck expects 2026 operating expenses of $42.4 billion to $42.9 billion.
• Merck expects 2026 EPS of $2.77 to $2.82, including an approximately $0.15 positive foreign-exchange impact using mid-October rates; the range includes the Ceybrion charge.
• Merck expects 2026 other expense of approximately $1.4 billion.
• Merck expects the third-quarter purchase-timing benefit for KEYTRUDA and WINREVAIR to fully unwind in the fourth quarter, while most of the vaccine benefit, primarily Gardasil, is expected to unwind in 2027.
• Third-quarter sales benefited by approximately $550 million from favorable U.S. purchase timing.
• Merck narrowed its 2026 non-GAAP guidance range and raised the midpoint of both full-year revenue and EPS guidance.

Impact estimates