MRK · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report

Vaccine Market Demand

Merck & Co., Inc. · 2026-11-04 · Importance 41 · Surprise 48

Gardasil and Gardasil 9 sales grew 14% in the third quarter, primarily on U.S. public-sector purchasing patterns and higher net pricing, but were up only 1% year to date as lower China and Japan demand offset growth in Europe and parts of Asia Pacific. Merck resumed limited China shipments in the second and third quarters under a revised distributor supply contract, but expects 2026 revenue from it to be immaterial. Capvaxive sales rose 22% year to date on international launch uptake, particularly in Europe and Asia Pacific, partly offset by lower U.S. adult pneumococcal vaccination rates and pricing. ProQuad demand increased in certain European markets, while U.S. demand was lower; the company also reported declines in U.S. and Asia Pacific Vaxneuvance demand amid competition.

Key facts

• Merck suspended Gardasil shipments to China in February 2025 due to lower demand and elevated channel inventory, entered a revised distributor supply contract in April 2026, and made limited shipments in Q2 and Q3 2026; 2026 revenue under the contract is expected to be immaterial. source
• M-M-R II worldwide sales grew 21% in Q3 2026, primarily from favorable U.S. public-sector purchasing patterns and higher Latin American demand. source
• Gardasil/Gardasil 9 worldwide sales grew 14% in Q3 2026, primarily on higher U.S. sales from favorable public-sector purchasing patterns and higher net pricing. source
• Capvaxive sales grew 8% in Q3 2026 and 22% in the first nine months, driven mainly by international launch uptake, partly offset by lower U.S. adult pneumococcal vaccination rates and net pricing. source
• Vaxneuvance worldwide sales declined 20% in the first nine months of 2026, partly due to approximately $70 million of favorable U.S. CDC stockpile activity in the prior year; lower U.S. and Asia Pacific demand from competition also contributed. source
• Merck expects most of the U.S. Gardasil benefit from favorable public-sector purchasing patterns to unwind in 2027. source
• Merck anticipates any negative sales effect from reduced HPV vaccine dosing recommendations will not be material. source
• Gardasil/Gardasil 9 worldwide sales grew 1% in the first nine months of 2026, with U.S. pricing and purchasing patterns and demand in Europe and parts of Asia Pacific largely offset by lower demand in China and Japan. source