MRNA · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report
Guidance / Outlook
Moderna, Inc. · 2026-11-06 · Importance 44 · Surprise 42 · In source text
Moderna expects product sales to return to growth in 2026, supported by the full-year impact of long-term strategic partnerships with government entities. For 2026, it anticipates a modest decrease in cost of sales compared with 2025, excluding the Arbutus/Genevant settlement impact; excluding that impact, cost of sales as a percentage of product sales and stand-ready revenue is expected to decrease moderately as sales grow. The company anticipates lower 2026 research and development expenses than in 2025, citing late-stage program wind-downs, cost management, and focused pipeline execution. It expects selling, general and administrative expenses to remain relatively consistent with 2025, with selective investment largely offset by efficiency initiatives.
Key facts
- Moderna anticipated a modest decrease in 2026 cost of sales compared with 2025, excluding the Arbutus and Genevant settlement impact; it recorded $884 million of settlement cost of sales in the first half of 2026 and expected additional amortization in the remainder of the year. source
- Moderna expects its cash, cash equivalents, investments, product-sale cash generation, and available credit-facility borrowings as of September 30, 2026 to fund projected operations and capital expenditures for at least the next 12 months from issuance of the financial statements. source
- Moderna expects its investment in the business for future product launches may lead to continued negative operating cash flows in upcoming periods. source
- Moderna expected product sales to return to growth in 2026, supported by the full-year impact of long-term strategic partnerships with government entities. source
- Excluding the Arbutus and Genevant settlement impact, Moderna expected cost of sales as a percentage of net product sales and stand-ready revenue to decrease moderately if net product sales increased. source
- Moderna anticipated lower research and development expenses in 2026 than 2025, driven primarily by winding down several late-stage programs, continued cost management and focused pipeline execution. source
- Moderna expected 2026 selling, general and administrative expenses to remain relatively consistent with 2025. source
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| operating_income | negative | realized | -67.3% | Moderna anticipated a modest decrease in 2026 cost of sales compared with 2025, excluding the Arbutus and Genevant settlement impact; it… |
| operating_income | positive | committed | — | Moderna anticipated a modest decrease in 2026 cost of sales compared with 2025, excluding the Arbutus and Genevant settlement impact; it… |
| operating_income | negative | committed | — | Moderna anticipated a modest decrease in 2026 cost of sales compared with 2025, excluding the Arbutus and Genevant settlement impact; it… |