MS · News · 20260911N

Semaglutide Competition and Patent Cliff

MORGAN STANLEY · 2026-09-11 · Importance 58 · Surprise 42

Morgan Stanley cited a subdued medium-term growth outlook for Novo Nordisk as semaglutide faces loss-of-exclusivity risk beginning in 2031. Semaglutide is expected to represent approximately 75% of Novo Nordisk's sales by 2026, creating significant exposure to generic competition. U.S. Wegovy prescription momentum has weakened, while Eli Lilly's Zepbound adds competitive pressure; the oral-obesity franchise is nevertheless projected to reach $10 billion in sales by 2031.

Key facts

• MORGAN STANLEY expects semaglutide to comprise about 75% of Novo Nordisk's sales by 2026. source
• MORGAN STANLEY warned Novo Nordisk is vulnerable to loss of exclusivity for semaglutide starting in 2031. source
• MORGAN STANLEY noted projected oral obesity franchise sales of $10 billion by 2031 despite expecting competitive headwinds from Eli Lilly. source
• MORGAN STANLEY downgraded Novo Nordisk from Equal-weight to Underweight citing a subdued mid-term growth outlook and concerns regarding the patent cliff for semaglutide. source
• MORGAN STANLEY maintained its price target of 250 Danish crowns on Novo Nordisk while indicating a more than 10% downside. source