MS · News · 20260911N

Autonomous Trucking Market Demand

MORGAN STANLEY · 2026-09-11 · Importance 20 · Surprise 24

Morgan Stanley estimates the U.S. autonomous-trucking market could reach $500 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2041. Tesla could generate approximately $17 billion of software revenue and $7.5 billion of incremental EBIT by 2040, based on an estimated 82,000 Semis on the road. Autonomous electric Semis could reduce operating costs by about 20% per mile and increase annual mileage by 133% versus human-operated diesel trucks, strengthening the value proposition for fleet operators.

Key facts

• MORGAN STANLEY suggests Tesla's autonomous trucking software could generate $17 billion in revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT by 2040. source
• MORGAN STANLEY projects a U.S. autonomous trucking market of $500 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2041. source
• MORGAN STANLEY projects Tesla's Semi business could add approximately $80 billion to Tesla's value. source
• MORGAN STANLEY estimates the total addressable market for autonomous trucking in the U.S. could reach $0.5 trillion to $1.1 trillion by 2041. source
• MORGAN STANLEY analysts say an autonomous electric semi is projected to cut costs by 20% per mile and increase annual mileage by 133% compared to human-operated diesel vehicles. source
• MORGAN STANLEY estimates the software could yield $12,000 to $18,000 in monthly revenue per truck assuming Tesla has 82,000 Semis on the road. source
• MORGAN STANLEY's projection of the $80 billion Tesla Semi opportunity is based on an estimated 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040. source
• MORGAN STANLEY reiterated an Equalweight rating on Tesla with a $400 price target. source