MS · News · 20261102N

Geopolitical and Macro Outlook

MORGAN STANLEY · 2026-11-02 · Importance 17 · Surprise 24

Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson forecast a temporary S&P 500 pullback of about 9% from its record, to 7,100, before a rebound to 8,000. He cited political uncertainty, concerns about AI spending, and tighter liquidity, and said a correction beneath the market surface had been underway for months. Wilson said a recovery may follow the November midterm elections, while the war in Iran and uncertain government policies could complicate the outlook. He described the elections as a clearing event and said the specific outcome mattered less than the resolution of uncertainty.

Key facts

• Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson expected a temporary pullback that could take the S&P 500 about 9% below its record, to 7,100, before a rebound to 8,000, according to a Sunday Bloomberg News interview. source
• Morgan Stanley research showed that U.S. stocks rose in the six- and 12-month periods after every midterm election since 1950; the war in Iran and uncertain government policies could complicate that pattern. source
• Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson described the upcoming U.S. midterm elections as a market “clearing event,” saying the outcome matters less than resolution of uncertainty. source