MTCH · 8-K · 20260804PR000128
Guidance and Outlook
Match Group, Inc. · 2026-08-04 · Importance 85 · Surprise 76 · Contradicted
For the third quarter of 2026, Match Group expects total revenue of $885 million to $895 million, representing a 2% to 3% year-over-year decline. The company forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $330 million to $335 million, up 10% year over year at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be 37% at the midpoint of the revenue and EBITDA ranges. Hinge is still expected to reach $1 billion of revenue in 2027, supported by product innovation, international expansion, and monetization gains.
Key facts
- For Q3 2026, Match Group expects Total Revenue of $885 to $895 million, down 2% to 3% Y/Y. source
- Hinge is still expected to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2027. source
- For Q3 2026, Match Group expects Adjusted EBITDA of $330 to $335 million, representing a Y/Y increase of 10% at the mid-point of the range. source
- For Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to be 37% at the mid-points of the ranges. source
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| revenue | positive | committed | +88.7% | For Q3 2026, Match Group expects Total Revenue of $885 to $895 million, down 2% to 3% Y/Y. |
| operating_income | positive | committed | +33.1% | For Q3 2026, Match Group expects Adjusted EBITDA of $330 to $335 million, representing a Y/Y increase of 10% at the mid-point of the range. |
| margin | negative | committed | -1.7% | For Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to be 37% at the mid-points of the ranges. |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | Hinge is still expected to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2027. |