MTCH · 8-K · 20260804PR000128
Guidance / Outlook
Match Group, Inc. · 2026-08-04 · Importance 80 · Surprise 68 · Contradicted
For Q3 2026, Match Group expects total revenue of $885 million to $895 million, representing a 2% to 3% year-over-year decline. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $330 million to $335 million, up 10% year over year at the midpoint, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37% at the midpoint. Management also expects Hinge to reach $1 billion in revenue in 2027, supported by product innovation, international expansion, and monetization gains.
Key facts
- Match Group expects net income attributable to shareholders for Q3 2026 to be $175 to $180 million as part of the reconciliation to forecasted Adjusted EBITDA. source
- Reconciliation items for Q3 2026 guidance include income tax provision of $41 million, other income net of ($5) million, interest expense of $42 million, stock-based compensation expense of $58 million, and depreciation and amortization of intangibles of $19 million to arrive at Adjusted EBITDA of $330 to $335 million. source
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| net_income | positive | committed | +17.7% | Match Group expects net income attributable to shareholders for Q3 2026 to be $175 to $180 million as part of the reconciliation to… |
| operating_income | negative | committed | -5.8% | Reconciliation items for Q3 2026 guidance include income tax provision of $41 million, other income net of ($5) million, interest expense… |
| net_income | negative | committed | -4.2% | Reconciliation items for Q3 2026 guidance include income tax provision of $41 million, other income net of ($5) million, interest expense… |
| net_income | negative | committed | -4.1% | Reconciliation items for Q3 2026 guidance include income tax provision of $41 million, other income net of ($5) million, interest expense… |
| operating_income | negative | committed | -1.9% | Reconciliation items for Q3 2026 guidance include income tax provision of $41 million, other income net of ($5) million, interest expense… |
| net_income | negative | committed | -0.5% | Reconciliation items for Q3 2026 guidance include income tax provision of $41 million, other income net of ($5) million, interest expense… |