MTCH · Earnings call · 2026Q2T · Full report

Guidance and Outlook

Match Group, Inc. · 2026-08-04 · Importance 74 · Surprise 68 · No source text

For Q3 2026, Match expects total revenue of $885 million to $895 million, down 2% to 3% year over year, including a one-point FX headwind, and adjusted EBITDA of $330 million to $335 million. Full-year revenue is expected near the midpoint of the February guidance range as reported and at or above the midpoint on an FX-neutral basis, while adjusted EBITDA is expected at or above the prior high end and margin above the 37.5% target. Tinder’s full-year direct revenue decline is now expected in the low-single-digit range, with user-experience tests reducing revenue by $30 million to $40 million rather than the previously expected $60 million. Management expects Tinder MAUs to be flat by the end of Q4 2027, payers to return to growth by Q4 2027, and Tinder full-year revenue to increase in 2027 versus 2026.

Key facts

• Q3 total revenue guidance: $885 million to $895 million, down 2% to 3% year over year, assumes a one-point headwind from FX
• Expect Match Group adjusted EBITDA in Q3 of $330 million to $335 million, approximately a 10% increase and adjusted EBITDA margin of 37% at the midpoint
• Full-year 2026: expect total revenue to be near the midpoint of guidance provided in February on an as-reported basis and at or above the midpoint FXN; now expect FX to be an approximately half-point tailwind to full-year total revenue, a half-point worse than earlier expected
• Expect adjusted EBITDA to be at or above the high end of guidance provided in February and adjusted EBITDA margin to exceed 37.5%
• Expect Tinder MAUs to be flat by the end of Q4 next year and payers should return to growth by Q4 of next year; full-year revenue for Tinder should be up in 2027 versus 2026

Impact estimates