NVDA · 10-Q · 2026Q2 · Full report

Export Controls / Regulatory Risk

NVIDIA CORP · 2026-05-20 · Importance 44 · Surprise 60 · In source text

Beginning in February 2026 the U.S. government granted licenses permitting NVIDIA to ship limited quantities of H200 products to specified China-based customers, but NVIDIA has not recognized any revenue under that program to date. The license requires U.S. inspection prior to shipment and the company states that any H200 shipped under the program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States. NVIDIA notes uncertainty about whether imports will be allowed into China and the practicalities of the inspection process, which could affect timing and revenue recognition. This licensing and tariff arrangement creates explicit additional landed cost and regulatory steps for shipments to China beginning February 2026.

Key facts

Impact estimates

metricdirectionstageexpectedbasis
marginnegativecontingentBeginning in February 2026, the U.S. government granted licenses that allow NVIDIA to ship small amounts of H200 products to specific…
revenuenegativecontingentBeginning in February 2026, H200s shipped under the new licensing program require an inspection process in the United States prior to…