PGR · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report

Commercial Auto Demand Trends

PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ · 2026-11-02 · Importance 25 · Surprise 32

Core commercial auto applications grew year over year in most business market territories (BMTs), with for-hire transportation the exception for new applications in the quarter and renewal applications in both periods. Policies in force increased in all BMTs except for-hire transportation. Quote volume rose 6% in the third quarter and 2% year to date; conversion increased 5% for the quarter but declined 1% year to date, with quarterly conversion improvement attributed primarily to marketplace competitiveness. Application growth was supported by targeted rate decreases in state and BMT combinations and increased advertising and agent-incentive spending.

Key facts

• Core commercial auto new-business applications increased 11% and renewal applications increased 8% in third quarter 2026 year over year; new applications increased in all BMTs and renewals in all BMTs except for-hire transportation. source
• Commercial Lines growth was driven by core commercial auto increases in new and renewal applications, primarily from targeted rate decreases in certain states and business market targets, plus increased advertising and agent incentive spending. source
• Core commercial auto trailing 12-month incurred frequency decreased 6% at the end of third quarter 2026 year over year, partly due to a business-mix shift and lower vehicle miles traveled. source
• Progressive’s core commercial auto quote volume increased 6% in third quarter 2026 and 2% in the first nine months; conversion increased 5% for the quarter and decreased 1% for the first nine months, year over year. source
• Core commercial auto products accounted for about 80% of Progressive’s Commercial Lines segment net premiums written on a trailing 12-month basis at the end of third quarter 2026. source
• Progressive’s core commercial auto new and renewal application growth was positive in all BMTs in the third quarter and first nine months of 2026 except for-hire transportation, which had lower new applications in the quarter and lower renewal applications in both periods, and for-hire specialty, which had flat renewal application growth for the first nine months. source