PKG · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report

Guidance / Outlook

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA · 2026-11-05 · Importance 40 · Surprise 42

For the fourth quarter of 2026, management expects solid corrugated-products demand with seasonal improvement and total shipments above the third quarter, while shipments per day are expected to be around the prior-year fourth-quarter level. Management expects containerboard and corrugated-products prices to improve as earlier increases are implemented, but anticipates seasonally weaker corrugated-products mix and significantly higher mill-maintenance outage expenses. It expects higher freight costs as diesel prices rise above third-quarter levels, continued increases in recycled-fiber costs, higher wood-fiber costs from winter yields and mill mix, and higher chemical and energy costs. Considering these factors, management expects fourth-quarter earnings to be below third-quarter 2026 earnings, excluding special items.

Key facts

• PCA expects lower fourth-quarter containerboard production due to maintenance outages at three mills, with significantly higher outage expenses and production-volume impacts. source
• PCA expects Packaging prices and mix to improve further in fourth-quarter 2026 due to previously announced containerboard and corrugated products price increases. source
• PCA expects solid corrugated products demand with some seasonal improvement in fourth-quarter 2026; shipments per day are expected around the prior-year fourth-quarter level, with two fewer shipping days than the third quarter, while total shipments are expected to exceed third-quarter shipments. source
• PCA expects containerboard and corrugated products prices to improve in fourth-quarter 2026 as earlier price increases are implemented, while seasonally weaker corrugated products mix and higher e-commerce volumes will partly offset the pricing benefit. source
• PCA expects fourth-quarter freight costs to increase across its business as diesel prices rise above third-quarter levels; recycled fiber costs are also expected to continue increasing, alongside higher wood fiber costs due to winter yields and mill mix. source
• PCA expects chemical and energy costs to increase in fourth-quarter 2026 due to higher prices and seasonal energy usage, and expects fourth-quarter earnings to be lower than third-quarter 2026 excluding special items. source
• PCA expects seasonally lower volume and slightly higher prices in the Paper segment in fourth-quarter 2026. source