PNC · 10-Q · 2026Q2 · Full report

Macroeconomic Factors Impact

PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. · 2026-08-05 · Importance 57 · Surprise 64 · In source text

PNC’s June 30, 2026 CECL scenarios incorporate ongoing geopolitical conflicts, higher energy prices, and trade and fiscal policy impacts, including tariffs, on the U.S. economic outlook. Management expects weighted-average real GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026, up from 0.5% in the December 31, 2025 scenario, with growth near that level in 2027 and rising to 2.1% in 2028. The weighted-average unemployment rate is projected at 4.6% at the end of 2026, peaking at 5.1% in 2027 and improving to 4.7% by the end of 2028. PNC says recession risks remain elevated but its most likely expectation is that the U.S. economy avoids a recession, while its qualitative framework reflects downside risks from the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, consumer stress, and uncertainty surrounding office demand.

Key facts

• CECL weighted-average scenario assumption: U.S. real GDP expected to end 2026 at 1.3% (up from 0.5% assumed at December 31, 2025), remain ~1.3% in 2027 and increase to 2.1% in 2028. source
• The economic scenarios used for the period ended June 30, 2026 consider ongoing geopolitical conflicts, higher energy prices and impacts of trade and fiscal policy including tariffs, and PNC's most likely expectation is that the U.S. economy avoids a recession. source
• PNC's baseline forecast expects real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026, unemployment rate ending the year at around 4.3%, and CPI inflation staying above 3% through year-end source
• CECL weighted-average scenario assumption: weighted-average unemployment rate will end 2026 at 4.6%, peak at 5.1% in 2027, and improve to 4.7% by the end of 2028. source
• PNC expects real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026. source
• PNC expects the unemployment rate to end 2026 at around 4.3%. source
• PNC expects CPI inflation to stay above 3% through year-end 2026. source
• PNC notes oil prices are up from early 2026. source

Impact estimates