PNC · 10-Q · 2026Q2 · Full report

Interest Rate Outlook

PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. · 2026-08-05 · Importance 40 · Surprise 42

PNC expects the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate unchanged throughout 2026 and into 2027. The projected range is 3.50% to 3.75%. Management says risks are skewed toward tighter monetary policy because inflation remains above target and higher energy prices and strong capital spending may create additional inflationary pressure. The rate outlook is relevant to PNC’s funding costs, asset repricing and net interest income sensitivity.

Key facts

• PNC's baseline forecast is for the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged throughout 2026 and into 2027 in a range between 3.50% and 3.75%. source
• Baseline forecast is for the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds rate unchanged throughout 2026 and into 2027, in a range between 3.50% and 3.75% source
• PNC states risks remain skewed toward tighter monetary policy given persistent above-target inflation and inflationary pressures from higher energy prices and continued strength in capital spending. source