PNC · 10-Q · 2026Q3 · Full report

Macroeconomic Factors Impact

PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC. · 2026-11-03 · Importance 35 · Surprise 64

PNC’s September 30, 2026 ACL scenarios incorporate ongoing geopolitical conflicts, higher energy prices, and trade and fiscal policy effects on the U.S. economic outlook; the most likely expectation is that the U.S. avoids recession, though recession risks remain elevated. Weighted-average U.S. real GDP growth is expected to end 2026 at 1.7%, up from the 0.5% assumption at December 31, 2025, decline to a 0.6% trough in the third quarter of 2027, and reach 2.1% in 2028. The weighted-average unemployment rate is forecast to end 2026 at 4.4%, peak at 5.1% in the first quarter of 2028, and improve to 4.8% by year-end 2028.

Key facts

• PNC's weighted-average real GDP growth assumption for 2026 was 1.7%, up from 0.5% as of December 31, 2025; growth is projected to trough at 0.6% in the third quarter of 2027 before reaching 2.1% in 2028. source
• PNC's weighted-average unemployment assumption ends 2026 at 4.4%, peaks at 5.1% in the first quarter of 2028, and improves to 4.8% by the end of 2028. source
• PNC's baseline forecast is for continued expansion in 2026 into 2027, with real GDP growth above 2% in 2026, continued modest job gains, unemployment roughly steady, and core inflation above 3% through year-end. source
• PNC expects core inflation to stay above 3% through year-end and identifies reversal in AI-related sentiment and any further sharp rise in bond yields as risks to its growth and inflation outlook. source
• PNC expects growth to remain steady in coming quarters, considers recession risks elevated, and most likely expects the U.S. economy to avoid a recession. source
• PNC's ACL scenarios for the period ended September 30, 2026 considered ongoing geopolitical conflicts, higher energy prices, and trade and fiscal policy impacts on the U.S. economic outlook. source