QCOM · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report

Handset Market Demand Trends

QUALCOMM INC/DE · 2026-11-04 · Importance 48 · Surprise 40 · In source text

Management identified June 2026 as the low point for its China Android business and said revenue grew in the September and December quarters. It described the global handset market as down low- to mid-teens from 2025 to 2026, with its planning assumption for 2027 flat to slightly down. Qualcomm attributed 2026 QCT handset pressure not only to market conditions but also to OEM channel inventory drawdowns; it said channel inventory remained thin and it did not expect a repeat of that drawdown in 2027. Management said QCT handset revenue should track the overall market and noted that its newer phone platforms were less exposed to pre-buying ahead of product price increases.

Key facts

• QUALCOMM INC/DE said industry analysts projected the handset market to decline low-teens to mid-teens from 2025 to 2026, and its own 2027 planning assumption was flat to slightly down.
• QUALCOMM INC/DE said its 2025-to-2026 handset market outlook was a low- to mid-teens decline and its 2026-to-2027 outlook was flat to down.
• QUALCOMM INC/DE's global handset-unit planning assumption is flat to down in calendar 2027.
• QUALCOMM INC/DE expected its premium-tier Android share position to strengthen as agentic smartphones increase computing content per device.
• QUALCOMM INC/DE said OEM channel inventory remained thin and it did not expect the 2026 channel inventory drawdown impact to recur in 2027.
• QUALCOMM INC/DE said QCT handset revenue in Android and China reached its bottom in the June quarter and grew into the September and December quarters.
• QUALCOMM INC/DE identified June 2026 as the low point for its China Android business and saw sequential growth in the December quarter.

Impact estimates