RF · 8-K · 20260807PR000057

Macroeconomic Factors Impact

REGIONS FINANCIAL CORP · 2026-08-07 · Importance 17 · Surprise 24

Regions’ June 2026 base forecast projects real GDP growth of 1.8% in third-quarter 2026 and 2.4% in fourth-quarter 2026, with growth moderating to 2.2% by second-quarter 2028. The forecast assumes unemployment of 4.3% through fourth-quarter 2026, declining to 4.0% by 2028, while CPI inflation declines from 3.9% in second-quarter 2026 to approximately 2.3% by 2027-2028. Final qualitative allowance adjustments considered economic uncertainty equivalent to a 15% to 20% increase in the unemployment rate.

Key facts

• Regions' base R&S economic forecast as of June 2026: Real GDP annualized 1.9% in 2Q2026 and trending to 2.2% by 2Q2028; Unemployment 4.3% in 2Q26 trending to 4.0% by 2Q28; CPI yoy 3.9% in 2Q26 trending to ~2.3% by 2Q28 source
• Final qualitative allowance adjustments included consideration of sensitivity reflecting a 15-20% increase in the unemployment rate source
• Unemployment rates in 9 of Regions' 15 state footprint remain at or below the national average source