SPGI · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report

Ratings Issuance Demand

S&P Global Inc. · 2026-10-27 · Importance 39 · Surprise 32

Management reported strong demand for rated debt and an 8% year-over-year increase in third-quarter billed issuance. Hyperscaler issuance reached approximately $240 billion year to date, with full-year issuance expected at $250 billion to $300 billion; investment-grade issuance outside hyperscalers also remained strong. Management characterized medium-term credit-market demand as supported by approximately $11 trillion of refinancing over four years, private credit, project finance, structured finance, and investment grade. It also noted high remaining performance obligations among four hyperscalers, with Visible Alpha consensus estimates just under $3 trillion for 2027, as a leading indicator rather than a capex forecast.

Key facts

• S&P Global expected investment-grade issuance to remain a good tailwind in the fourth quarter of 2026, continuing the previously discussed double-digit growth.
• Hyperscaler issuance rated by S&P Global reached approximately $240 billion year to date, and the company expected $250 billion to $300 billion for full-year 2026.
• Excluding hyperscaler issuance, S&P Global estimated third-quarter 2026 investment-grade issuance would have increased around 15%, while total billed issuance would have been up low single digits.
• S&P Global expected rising rates to continue to provide some offset around high-yield issuance and leveraged loans in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• S&P Global said it had approximately $11 trillion of refinancing walls over the next four years.
• S&P Global reported total billed issuance growth of 8% year over year in the third quarter of 2026.
• S&P Global reported that the first three quarters of 2026 were the three strongest quarters on record for billed issuance.
• S&P Global reported strong demand for rated debt in the third quarter of 2026; higher Treasury yields were offset by near-record-tight credit spreads.