UNP · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report
Guidance / Outlook
UNION PACIFIC CORP · 2026-10-22 · Importance 47 · Surprise 32 · In source text
Union Pacific affirmed its 2026 reported EPS growth outlook in the high-single-digit range versus 2025 reported EPS of $11.98, which included $0.30 from a fourth-quarter land sale. Year-to-date 2026 reported EPS growth was 9%, which management said was in line with its outlook. The company also reaffirmed that it expects to improve its core operating ratio in 2026, while noting that higher fuel prices are weighing on reported margins. Fourth-quarter fuel prices were expected to average around $4.85 per gallon.
Key facts
- UNION PACIFIC CORP affirmed its outlook for 2026 reported EPS growth in the high single-digit range versus 2025 reported EPS of $11.98; the 2025 figure included $0.30 from a fourth-quarter land sale.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP expected International Intermodal volume to grow double digits in Q4 2026 after fully lapping the prior year's tariff volatility.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP expected further growth in Grain and grain products from strong export grain demand and ongoing business development, including new Bunge and 5B facilities in Dalhart, Texas.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP expected Domestic Intermodal to deliver its third consecutive record volume year, supported by over-the-road conversions and its service product.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP affirmed that it expects to continue improving its core operating ratio in 2026 and leading the industry.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP said lower natural gas prices and elevated inventories would continue to challenge Coal, while pricing discipline and business wins would offset some market-driven declines.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP expected continued strength in metals from construction projects and domestic steel production.
- UNION PACIFIC CORP expected automotive business wins to continue offsetting market weakness.
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| net_income | positive | committed | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP affirmed its outlook for 2026 reported EPS growth in the high single-digit range versus 2025 reported EPS of $11.98;… |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP expected International Intermodal volume to grow double digits in Q4 2026 after fully lapping the prior year's tariff… |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP expected further growth in Grain and grain products from strong export grain demand and ongoing business development,… |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP expected Domestic Intermodal to deliver its third consecutive record volume year, supported by over-the-road… |
| margin | positive | committed | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP affirmed that it expects to continue improving its core operating ratio in 2026 and leading the industry. |
| revenue | negative | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP said lower natural gas prices and elevated inventories would continue to challenge Coal, while pricing discipline and… |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP said lower natural gas prices and elevated inventories would continue to challenge Coal, while pricing discipline and… |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP expected continued strength in metals from construction projects and domestic steel production. |
| revenue | positive | probable | — | UNION PACIFIC CORP expected automotive business wins to continue offsetting market weakness. |