VST · 8-K · 20260807PR000017
Guidance / Outlook
Vistra Corp. · 2026-08-07 · Importance 58 · Surprise 24 · In source text
Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion. The company also reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. As of August 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of expected 2026 generation, 94% of 2027 generation, and 72% of 2028 generation. The company maintained a previously announced 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, excluding Cogentrix and Meta-related benefits.
Key facts
- Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $6,800 million to $7,600 million. source
- Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance range of $3,925 million to $4,725 million. source
- The hedging program supports the reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges and the previously announced Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion for 2027. source
- The guidance ranges exclude any potential benefits from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the signed power purchase agreements with Meta, part of which are expected to contribute to Adjusted EBITDA in 2027. source
- As of Aug. 3, 2026, Vistra had hedged approximately 100% of its expected generation volumes for 2026, approximately 94% for 2027, and approximately 72% for 2028. source
- 2026 guidance Adjusted EBITDA excludes any potential benefit from the nuclear production tax credit. source
Impact estimates
| metric | direction | stage | expected | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| operating_income | unclear | committed | — | Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $6,800 million to $7,600 million. |
| cash | unclear | committed | — | Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance range of $3,925 million to $4,725 million. |
| operating_income | positive | probable | — | The hedging program supports the reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges and the previously announced Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint… |
| operating_income | positive | probable | — | The guidance ranges exclude any potential benefits from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the signed power purchase agreements with… |
| net_income | positive | contingent | — | 2026 guidance Adjusted EBITDA excludes any potential benefit from the nuclear production tax credit. |