WM · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report

Renewable Energy Outlook

WASTE MANAGEMENT INC · 2026-10-27 · Importance 26 · Surprise 24

WM added a renewable natural gas facility in New York during the quarter, bringing the number completed since 2022 to 18, and expected another facility to come online in the fourth quarter with the final plant expected in early 2027. Management said start-up and pipeline issues had affected production, but the completed projects were expected to contribute further as production ramps. More than 90% of expected 2026 production and about 40% of 2027 production were contracted, improving earnings visibility and limiting commodity-price exposure. Management said it felt confident in achieving its long-term $26 pricing assumption and planned to provide more detail on the EBITDA ramp in early 2027.

Key facts

• More than 90% of WM's expected 2026 renewable energy production and about 40% of its 2027 production were contracted as of the call.
• WM expected 18 renewable energy plants to be online, with another plant to come online in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the last plant in early first-quarter 2027.
• WM completed its 18th renewable natural gas facility since 2022 in New York during the third quarter of 2026.
• WM said 40% of its renewable energy volume for 2027 was locked up, and it was confident in achieving the $26 price number.
• WM expected increased renewable energy EBITDA from plants that came online in 2026 and from plants coming online in 2027.
• WM planned to provide more detail on its renewable energy EBITDA ramp in early 2027.
• Waste Management expected favorable carryover and rollover effects from RNG and recycling as it received full run-rate benefits from those plants.
• WM's long-term renewable energy price outlook was $26, while it expected to realize about $27 in 2026.