BAC · News · 20261106N

Interest Rate Outlook

BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ · 2026-11-06 · Importance 10 · Surprise 6

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said investors should remain risk-off until central banks end rate hikes, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls below 4.5%, and oil drops below $80 per barrel. He said weak November inflation and payrolls data could make December rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan their last. Hartnett said a year-end rally in risk assets could begin around Thanksgiving, while the midterm results could signal rising taxes and regulation.

Key facts

• Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said investors should stay risk-off until the central banks’ rate-hiking cycle ends, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls below 4.5%, and oil drops below $80 a barrel. source
• Hartnett said that if November inflation and payrolls data are weak, December rate hikes from the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan could be the last. source