V · Earnings call · 2026Q3T · Full report

Macroeconomic Factors Impact

VISA INC. · 2026-10-27 · Importance 37 · Surprise 14

Visa’s CEO said U.S. spending growth has accelerated to around 10%, attributing its underlying strength primarily to employment: most people seeking work have jobs, and consumers are experiencing real wage growth. Management also noted elevated consumer uncertainty but said spending resilience is evident across spending bands on Visa’s network. The CEO said it is too difficult to determine how long the strength will last or what the new normal will be.

Key facts

• Visa's 2027 assumptions include continued near-term uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, particularly for CEMEA cross-border travel spend, with those volumes generally indexed to Q4 levels.
• Visa's U.S. payment volume growth accelerated from 6%, 7% and 8% in the prior 6, 12 and 18 months to 10%, which management linked principally to strong employment and real wage growth.
• Visa management said employment strength and real wage growth were supporting spending despite elevated consumer uncertainty, with resilience across spending bands on its network.